Armor & Mobility

FEB 2017

Military magazines in the United States and Canada, covering Armor and Mobility, focuses on tactical vehicles, C4ISR, Special Operations Forces, latest soldier equipment, shelters, and key DoD programs

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recently supporting Ebola medical operations in West Africa. The Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC), a TRADOC "Futures" unit, in Jan 2016 provided an overview briefing on the "Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning" that linked to HW. Within the document, it was stated that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, has referred to these hybrid threats as an "inflection point in modern war. Indeed, in the disordered post-Cold War world, hybrid warfare remains an excellent framework for understanding the changing character of warfare." A View to Expeditionary During the next phase of the JSB study on HW and expeditionary basing it is proposed to quantify the threat using a suitable approach for modeling. Under consideration is an update to a 2010 NSRDEC Future Soldier Initiative (FSI) Troop to Task model linked to basing. The FSI expeditionary basing study investigated current approaches by user troops with recent field experience to establish a platoon size base camp. The FSI has now transformed into the Soldier and Squad Performance Optimization Initiative. JSB staff met with the Program Integration Lead on May 9, 2016 to discuss the HW project and gather input. There was agreement that HW was a broad based threat that was applicable to expeditionary basing and that an updated variant of the Troop to Task model was a viable approach. A stretch goal of phase II, currently unfunded, is to investigate if leading indicators for new Disruptive Adaption threats could be identified from open source incident articles and reports. Each article or report gathered since November 2015 is logged into an incident matrix with nine category columns for potential data points. Attributes such as event title, date, location, threat, group, deaths, source, notes and other are captured. Based on a past effort by JOCOTAS to better understand the impact on expeditionary basing as a result the shift to the Pacific Rim I believe this is possible. As outlined in the 2012 Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership Priorities for the 21st Century, the Pacific Rim strategy made little note of Africa with the exception of the Arab Spring and Somalia. The results of our research effort begun in January of 2013, and outlined in the September 2013 TDM Armor and Mobility made it clear that Africa would be a location of future conflict. Shock and awe was a good concept to punish our enemies, but lacked the breadth of solutions needed to stabilize Iraq. Underestimated were the cultural, societal and political seams that were ripe for exploitation by both Non-State and State Actors. Whether in Yugoslavia, Iraq or Libya, the unshackling of historical constraints doesn't always lead to vibrant, western style, democracies. Conforming to Meet the Threat The 2016 Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning (JCIC) Executive Overview written by the Army Capabilities Integration Center recognizes this and suggests that winning at warfare in a Hybrid Environment is more about shaping and less about rapid dominance. Shock and awe was an example of the latter. The genie is out of the bottle and today's military leaders are facing complex HW adversaries and will be for the foreseeable future. There will be a mix of State and Non-State Actors synergistically aligned, who have shown a lack of any constraints when dealing with their captives. Religious and sectarian genocide, human trafficking, and rape are common outcomes. JOCOTAS research began approximately one year ago as a result of CSA GEN Milley identifying HW as a prevalent threat in a number of areas of operation. In that time span things have significantly changed. In September 2016 the Air Force Times reported that GEN Milley, speaking on the eve of the 15th anniversary of the September 11 stated that the threat posed by extremists has not lessened over the past 15 years. These comments were made at the National Guard Association of the United States annual conference, in context to the many deployments the Guard executes. On October 5, 2016 Breaking Defense, captured CSA Milley remarks, at Association of the U.S. Army's annual Eisenhower Luncheon. He stated "We are on the cusp of a fundamental change in the character of ground warfare, a revolution perhaps five to 10 years away, His vision of those future wars is unnerving." As the Army turns from interminable counterinsurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq to nation-states such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, Milley foresees a battlefield that "is going to be intensely lethal, the likes of which the United States military, has not experienced since World War II." To combat this complex future environment GEN Milley noted that the Pentagon, under the direction of Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work is pursuing a Multi Domain Battle Concept. On Jan 11, 2017 it was reported that Deputy Secretary Work would remain in his Pentagon assignment during the transition. The HW Threat Chart identifies ten challenges facing today's leaders including Cyber Warfare, Disinformation and Media Manipulation. This occurred in Germany and extensively during the 2016 U.S. Presidential race. Hacking of the Democratic National Committee servers resulted in a Wiki Leaks dump of many negative emails undermining the integrity of the race for a large portion of voters. False News was the standard. The HW tenet of Exploitation of Societal Seams in Open Societies is in play before our eyes. The JSB for Tactical Shelters and Expeditionary Basing Systems is an element of JOCOTAS. GROUP 1 TROOPS TO TASK TROOPS TO TASK TROOPS TO TASK TASK WP1 WP2 WP3 FORCE PROTECTION 16 16 16 MORTAR MANNING 6 4 4 TOC/COIST MANNING 6 5 5 DAILY BASE DETAIL 9 12 12 REST / REFIT 9 9 9 BASE BUILD (ENGINEERS) 6 6 3 TOTAL INSIDE THE WIRE 52 52 52 TOTAL OUTSIDE THE WIRE 15 15 15 TIME BLOCKS IN DAYS 0-4 4 to 11 11 to 18 TOTAL AVAILABLE SOLDIERS 67 67 67 Troop to Task Chart Tracks Base Build Status www.tacticaldefensemedia.com Armor & Mobility | February 2017 | 21

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